Will DAP be the largest bloc among Pakatan Harapan MPs after the next general election?
Lim Kit Siang answers ‘No’.
Such false modesty. So fake.
Sigh … the lengths to which DAP will go to in order to downplay their actual strength and convince Malay voters that DAP is no threat, and that Tun Mahathir’s party will do better than DAP in the coming election.
Ish, ish, ish … what great pretenders.
In his media statement today, Kit Siang said:
“… if there is a swing of 10% Malay voters and 5% non-Malay voters from Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Harapan in peninsular Malaysia in the 14th general election as compared to the 13th general election, Pakatan Harapan will win 113 of the 165 parliamentary seats”.
Referring to the above scenario of 113 Pakatan Harapan parliamentary wins in peninsular Malaysia, Kit Siang projects the seat distribution to be
- DAP 32
And the other three Pakatan Harapan parties respectively or other permutations:
Kit Siang did not assign the forecast numbers (39, 32, 10) to specific parties but obviously the other three parties in the Coalition of Hope are PKR, PBBM and PAN.
⇓ “DAP will not be PH party with the largest bloc of MPs” … Kit Siang T-I-P-U
Annuar wrong – DAP will not be PH party with largest bloc of MPs from the 165 seats in Peninsular Malaysia https://t.co/tycIGKo133
— Lim Kit Siang (@limkitsiang) October 11, 2017
Kit Siang is trying very, very hard to assuage Malay fears that DAP will indeed remain the biggest and strongest Harapan component party post-GE14.
He insists, “the political party with the biggest parliamentary bloc in peninsular Malaysia would be either PKR or Parti Pribumi Bersatu and not DAP”.
⇑ Tipu lagi
Let’s examine Kit Siang’s claim on the basis of his own stated premise.
Kit Siang is postulating a game changer in the coming general election (GE14). He has predicted BN will toppled if there is a swing of 10% Malay voters and 5% non-Malay voters to Pakatan Harapan.
Below is the current standing of the Pakatan Harapan parties in parliament:
- DAP: 29 in peninsula, 7 in Sabah & Sarawak
- PKR: 27 in peninsula, 1 in Sabah & Sarawak
- PBBM: 1 in peninsula, none in Sabah & Sarawak
- PAN: 6 in peninsula, none in Sabah & Sarawak
Kit Siang must think the Malaysian public are all punch drunk on the evangelical kool-aid to believe that DAP will not emerge as the biggest party in the next election.
Kit Siang is trying to hoodwink us that Tun Mahathir’s party will suddenly jump from its one seat present (Muhyiddin Yassin @ Pagoh, Johor) to winning bigly between 32 and 39 seats in GE14.
If any can believe the DAP’s assumed modesty and humility, we’ve got a golden bridge in Penang to sell you.
The genuine facts and statistics
Here is the data. The list below shows the DAP’s current 29 parliament seats:
- Bagan, Penang
- Bukit Mertajam, Penang
- Batu Kawan, Penang
- Bukit Bendera, Penang
- Tanjong, Penang
- Jelutong, Penang
- Bukit Gelugor, Penang
- Taiping, Perak
- Ipoh Timur, Perak
- Ipoh Barat, Perak
- Batu Gajah, Perak
- Beruas, Perak
- Kampar, Perak
- Raub, Pahang
- Serdang, Selangor
- Puchong, Selangor
- Petaling Jaya Utara, Selangor
- Klang, Selangor
- Kepong, Kuala Lumpur
- Segambut, Kuala Lumpur
- Bukit Bintang, Kuala Lumpur
- Seputeh, Kuala Lumpur
- Cheras, Kuala Lumpur
- Seremban, Negeri Sembilan
- Rasah, Negeri Sembilan
- Bakri, Johor
- Kluang, Johor
- Gelang Patah, Johor
- Kulai, Johor
DAP’s remaining seven parliament seats in Sabah and Sarawak are Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan, Bandar Kuching, Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang and Sibu.
Restricting our discussion to peninsula as per Kit Siang’s claim
What can we tell about DAP’s 29 peninsular seats above?
1 Seven of them are in Penang’s Cina pekat areas. Their Penangite voters are those Cina totok who have elected a DAP state government for two consecutive terms in GE12 and GE13. Analysis: These seven seats will remain safely in DAP hands come the next election.
2 Six of the DAP seats are in Perak, and Perak is shaky for BN. In fact, the state hung in the balance the last two elections. Perak non-Malay voters in the DAP areas are staunchly pro opposition and gave the state to the DAP-led Pakatan Rakyat in 2008. Analysis: DAP will be able to easily retain these half dozen seats in GE14.
3 The next cluster of DAP seats are its four in Selangor, and Selangor is a heavily pro opposition where Pakatan Aduns (including PAS at that time) won 44 of the 56 DUN seats the last general election. In 2013 following GE13, Pakatan had held 78.6 percent of the Selangor DUN seats, or close to a super four-fifths majority!
As a matter of note, DAP prima donna Tony Pua won his PJ Utara parliament constituency on a whopping majority of 44,672 votes. There is no way, absolutely no way, that DAP can lose its cache of Selangor seats.
4 DAP holds five out of the 11 Kuala Lumpur seats. The other KL parliamentarians are Tian Chua (Batu − PKR), Tan Kee Kwong (Wangsa Maju − PKR), Nurul Izzah (Lembah Pantai − PKR) and Khalid Ibrahim (Bandar Tun Razak − ex-PKR). Only two KL seats are in BN hands, i.e. Setiawangsa and Titiwangsa. Analysis: KL is ‘owned’ by the Chinese. Enough said.
5 DAP’s newest batch of seats are in Johor. They are Bakri (5,067 votes), Kluang (7,359), Gelang Patah (14,762) and Kulai (11,744). DAP’s winning majority for these seats are noted within brackets.
The DAP’s Johor wins are in comfortable majorities of four- and five-digits. Remember that Johor is the front line state in DAP’s campaign to capture the federal government. Remember too that MCA Johor is under targeted attack by DAP. MCA’s Johor seats are Labis, Ayer Hitam, Tebrau and Tanjong Piai which were won on narrow majorities.
Chua Soi Lek’s son (MCA) won Labis on a wafer thin majority of 353 votes against an Indian opposition candidate (DAP).
In the last election, all of DAP’s Johor Chinese candidates at state level made a clean sweep of the 13 DUN seats they contested while the party’s only candidate to lose his Johor state assembly challenge was Indian, that is, Shanker Rengganathan in Paloh (N.30). DAP supporters are racist, no?
Only one percent of DAP Aduns is bumiputera — READ HERE
Therefore, if DAP had stood a Chinese candidate in the parliament seat of Labis instead of putting up Ramakrishnan Suppiah, it is possible that DAP might have won.
MCA won Tebrau with a majority of 1,767 against a Chinese PKR candidate. MCA won Tanjong Piai against a Malay DAP candidate. MCA won Ayer Hitam against a Chinese PAS candidate.
To summarize how MCA obtained its current Johor seats:
- Labis: MCA vs DAP Indian
- Tebrau: MCA vs PKR Chinese
- Tanjong Piai: MCA vs DAP Malay
- Ayer Hitam: MCA vs PAS Chinese
Given what we know of DAP supporters and Chinese voters in general, you have to wonder what would have been the results if the battle was instead:
- Labis: MCA vs DAP Chinese
- Tebrau: MCA vs DAP Chinese
- Tanjong Piai: MCA vs DAP Chinese
- Ayer Hitam: MCA vs DAP Chinese
6 The remaining parliament seats that DAP is occupying are Raub held by Ariff Sabri, Seremban held by Anthony Loke (DAP national organizing secretary) and Rasah held by Teo Kok Seong(former DAP Youth chief).
The above details pertain to DAP’s current total of 29 seats in the peninsula.
DAP had held 31 seats earlier but lost Kota Melaka and Teluk Intan midterm. Kota Melaka MP Sim Tong Him jumped ship not too long ago to become an independent. Earlier, Sim had won Kota Melaka – a Chinese-majority seat – also for DAP in 2008.
Teluk Intan was DAP’s seat in GE13 but its MP Seah Leong Peng died from bladder cancer in 2014. DAP subsequently lost Teluk Intan in the by-election contested by its greenhorn Malay parachutist Dyana Sofya. DAP would have won hands down had they played safe and featured a seasoned Chinese local boy.
Analysis: Kota Melaka and Teluk Intan will be retained by DAP in GE14 if they nominate winnable candidates.
So far, the analysis above closely conforms with Kit Siang’s prediction announced this morning. To recap, he predicted a modest DAP haul of 32 parliament seats in the peninsula the coming election. In the last election, DAP had successfully captured 31 seats in the peninsula.
Let’s be realistic, shall we?
Can DAP do better than the 32 MPs forecast by Kit Siang?
Four seats which DAP contested but lost in GE13 were Cameron Highlands, Bentong, Labis and Tanjong Piai.
BN won these seats narrowly. Their winning majority margin is recorded in brackets below.
- Cameron Highlands − MIC (462 votes)
- Bentong − MCA (379 votes)
- Labis − MCA (353 votes)
- Tanjong Piai − MCA (5,457 votes)
The incumbents in Cameron Highlands and Bentong are former MIC president G. Palanivel and current MCA president Liow Tiong Lai respectively.
Does DAP stand a chance of winning the above four seats in GE14 that they lost very narrowly (with the exception of Tanjong Piai at 5.5k) the last election?
Kit Siang has confidently claimed that the opposition will be able to grab BN-held seats if there is a swing of 10% Malay voters and 5% non-Malay voters away from BN.
Cameron Highlands, Bentong and Labis will surely fall to the DAP with only a small voter shift.
Furthermore, according to the analysis made by DAP’s own strategist Liew Chin Tong, his party will be able to win Tanjong Piai in the event of a 10 percent voter shift.
Based on projections from the 2013 election results and demographics, DAP is likely to win – at the minimum – 35 seats in the peninsula. This is derived from the identical list of seats that DAP contested in GE13.
But don’t forget that DAP is planning to expand their horizons and eyeing to snatch more seats that have not been traditionally theirs, such as Sungai Siput held by mosquito party PSM.
DAP asyik tipu saja … cukup lah
It is most disingenuous of Kit Siang to downplay the DAP’s chances at 32 peninsular parliament seats when they’ve already got 35 in the bag.
Chinese-majority seats are DAP strongholds and a no-brainer given the extreme negative voter sentiment among the non Malays and non Muslims.
The Malay-majority seats are, however, harder to call due to the likelihood of three- or multi-cornered fights with PAS playing spoiler to split the votes.
It’s a long stretch of the imagination to insist that PBBM can jump from Muhyiddin’s one seat to gaining anything from 32-39 parliament seats in Malay areas, as Kit Siang earnestly would have you believe.
Fact: DAP is the biggest and strongest party in Pakatan Harapan. There is no reason to think that it will not continue to dominate the coalition.
There is also no reason to think a new and untested party like PBBM can overtake DAP. Neither is there any reason to think the disarrayed PKR will be able to maintain its second place position (behind DAP) in the absence of PAS grassroots support and election machinery on the ground.
Yet Kit Siang is trying so very hard to convince Malay voters that PBBM, PKR or perhaps PAN will all do better than DAP so that any opposition advance is still safeguarded by Malay power.
This insistent playacting simply cements the DAP’s reputation as deceitful and duplicitous.